Description
SPRINGER Risk Management Methods In The Aviation Enterprise (Hb 2021) by SHAROV V.D.
This book provides a comprehensive content for professionals engaged in the development of flight safety regulatory framework, as well as in the design and operation of ground-based or on-board flight support radio electronic systems. It presents mathematical tools and methods of probabilistic theory, mathematical statistics and graph theory, along with some provisions of decision-making theory and multi-criteria analysis. This book helps as a good guide for those involved in aviation risk assessment and air traffic management. Chapter 1. Methods of flight safety risk management 1.1. Methods based on the model of aviation "event tree" development1.1.1. Main provisions. Methodology of event type list forming1.1.2. "Tree" formation and principles of basic probabilities evaluation1.1.2.1. Methodology of "tree" design1.1.2.2. Methods for evaluation of emergency factors basic probabilities1.1.3. Basic probabilities evaluation for the group "Environment"1.1.3.1. Structure of group accountable factors1.1.3.2. Basic probabilities evaluation for the natural environment factors1.1.3.3. Methodology for the runway performances treatment1.1.3.4. Methodology for aerodrome infrastructure drawbacks treatment1.1.4. Method of a posteriori probabilities adjustment1.1.4.1. Formulation of the problem. Implementation of fuzzy estimations for a priori event probability distribution forming1.1.4.2. Forming of a posteriori event probability distribution1.1.5. Implementation of the method in automated system of forecasting and prevention of aviation accidents1.2. Method of flight safety risk management using conditional factors and fuzzy evaluations1.2.1. Formulation of the problem and approach to the solution. Content and structure of the source data1.2.2. Severity factor and method of its calculation1.2.3. Admissibility factor and method of its calculation1.2.3.1. Rationale for fuzzy evaluation applicability1.2.3.2. Composition of membership functions and the system of fuzzy logic conclusion1.2.4. Implementation of the method in automated risk management system1.3. Method of flight safety risk management based on the three-cocmponent model1.3.1 Formulation of the problem. Algorithm of divergence and event risk index evaluation1.3.2. Algorithm of emergency risk evaluationChapter 2. Aircraft overrun risk reducing methods2.1. Description of aircraft runway movement after landing 2.2. Analysis of the problem of information supply on runway surface conditions 2.3. Methods of the crew situational raise awareness about runway conditions 2.3.1. Institutional arrangements and improvement of interpretation methods for descriptive information2.3.2. Experimental detection of correlation dependence between Canadian and Russian runway friction indices. 2.4. Overrun risk management method based on statistical modeling.2.4.1. Development of mathematical model for aircraft runway movement and its implementation in the program "Overrun Probability"2.4.2. Joint application of the program "Overrun Probability" and multidimensional statistical methods of data analysis 2.4.2.1. Research objectives. Primary data processing2.4.2.2. Principle component analysis method for comprehensive analysis of landing data2.5. Overrun prognostication2.5.1. Modification of "Overrun Probability"program mathematical model for prognostication task2.5.2. Overrun prognosticating algorithm development for aborted take-offChapter 3. Practices to combat external impact on the aircraft navigation systems in civil aviation and flight regulatory management3.1. Implementation of methods for struggle with unauthorized actions on aircraft navigation systems3.1.1. Main hardware methods of protection from unauthorized actions3.1.2. Principal methods of aircraft navigation systems stability enhancement under unauthorized actions 3.1.3. Estimation of GALILEO potential contribution into stability enhancement during combined operation with GPS or GNSS3.1.4. Application of unauthorized activities detection aids for operation stability improvement of aircraft navigation system3.2. Measurement of weather radiosonde altitude by the method of relative navigation sightings 3.3. Method of flight regularity management in aviation enterpriseAppendix 1. Operational forecasting and risk evaluation of the upcoming flight by the program ASFPAAAppendix 2. Automated risk management system (ARMS)Appendix 3. Implementation of the program "Managerial decisions efficiency estimation"Appendix 4. Data preparation for the program "Overrun Prognosis"Appendix 5. Using "Overrun Prognosis" program as a module of ASFPAAAbbreviations References