Description
Springer The Art Of Decision-Making 1986 Edition by Morton Davis
Suppose you had the chance to invest in a venture that succeeds half the time. When you fail you lose your in vestment; when you succeed you make a profit of$1.60 for every $1.00 you invest. The odds are 8 to 5 in your favor and you should do well-casinos and insurance companies thrive under less favorable conditions. If you can invest as much as you like as often as you like using a betting system that guarantees you can't go broke common sense suggests you will almost certainly make aprofitafteryou make a large numberofinvestments. In response to yourrequest for a hot stock yourastrologer tells you ABC Inc. will triple in a year (she's really a fraud and picked the stock at random). But since such stocks are rare (one in athousand) you consultan expert and strangely enough he confirms the astrologer. From experience you know that the expert diagnoses all stocks good and bad correctly 90% of the time. Common sense suggests you have an excellent chance of tripling your money. You are chairman of acommittee ofthree. Decisions are made by majority rule but if there is no majority your vote as chairman breaks ties. Common sense suggests you will inevitably have more power to determine the outcome than the other members. Table of contents : The Bottom Line: Decisions in Business and Economics.- Practical Problem-Solving.- Game Theory: The Art of Making Joint Decisions.- Decision-Making in the Boardroom: Problems of Voting.- A Mixture of Wit and Whimsy.