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DPS Publishing House History of the Comtemporary World 1942-2000 by Dr Sr Bakshi
History ofthe Contemporary World 1942-2000 clear is that this growth will be uneven-faster here, slower there, depending upon the conditions for change. It is this, more than anything else, which makes the progneses that follow so provisional; for there is no guarantee that, for example, Japan's impressive economic expansion over the past four decades will continue during the next two; nor is it impossible for Russain growth rates, which have been declining since the 1960s, to increase again in the 1990s, given changes in that country's economic policy and mechanisms. On the evidence of existing trends, however, neither of those outcomes appears very likely. To put it another way, if it did happen that Japan stagnated and Russia boomed economically between now and the early twenty-first century, then that could only come about from changes in circumstances and policies far more drastic than it is reasonable to assume from the available evidence. Just because estimates-of how the world will appear in fifteen or twenty-five years' time may go wrong does not mean that one should prefer implausible out-comes rather than sensible expectations based upoo current broad developments.