Description
Berghahn Books German Security Policy in the 21st Century Problems Partners and Perspectives 2004 Edition by Holger Mey
"Berlin, 12 January 2030 - The crisis worsens. The Chancellor reaches for the telephone. He instructs his anteroom to put through a call to Germany's most important ally in order to discuss the situation and determine a further course of action." With whom would the chancellor speak? With the American, the French, or maybe even the Russian president? Or will the Chancellor only exercise representative functions while the real responsibility and decision-making authority lies with the President of the United Regions of Europe? This volume invites policy makers and politicians to use their imagination, to look beyond current events and take a long-term view on possible developments. Such projections, the author argues, lead to interesting conclusions for strategic planning. Table of contents :- Chapter 1. IntroductionChapter 2. The Future Europe and Its Security Environment: Four Illustrative Scenarios for the Year 2030Europe in the Year 2030: Two ScenariosScenario I: The United Regions of Europe (URE) in the Year 2030Scenario II: A Europe of Diverse Alliances between Nation-StatesEurope's International Security Environment in the Year 2030: Two ScenariosScenario I: A Comparatively Peaceful International EnvironmentScenario II: A Threatening Security EnvironmentChapter 3. Security TrendsWhich Parameters Will Influence the Future Security Environment?The Role of Military Power in International RelationsForces and MeansThe Meaning of Military PowerMilitary and Economic Power in International RelationsThe World of States and the International SystemThe Law of Armed ConflictThe Strategic Implications of Juridical NormsPermissibility (ius ad bellum)Conduct of War (ius in bello)The Globalization of EconomicsGlobal Civilizing ProcessesIdeals and IdeologiesPublic Opinion and Mass MediaShift of EmphasisMode of ActionThe Instrumental Use of the MediaThe Operational Use of the MediaConclusionsPopulation and Environmental ProblemsDevelopments in Military TechnologyFuture Forms of ConflictWarfare in the Twenty-First Century - A Systematic OverviewThree Categories of Military ConflictCharacteristics of Future WarsForms of Future War and ConflictChapter 4. Political Actors and Critical Regions: What Lies Ahead for Germany?GermanyU.S.A.The West European StatesOther European StatesThe Russian FederationChina and AsiaThe Caucasus RegionNorth AfricaChapter 5. Risks and Challenges for GermanyGeneral RemarksRisk CategoriesPossible Zones of Risk for German Security: An OverviewFuture Forms of War and Armed Conflict: Implications for GermanyDirect Attack and AggressionFurther Forms of Armed ConflictChapter 6. Summary and Sensitivity Assessments: Germany's Strategic Surroundings in the Year 2030Chapter 7. Conclusions: The Bundeswehr and the Future Strategic EnvironmentRisk CalculusTasks and Roles in the AllianceSummarizing Conclusions Regarding Selected StructuralCharacteristics of the Armed ForcesAppendix I: The Bundeswehr of the Future: Selected Structural CharacteristicsSize and Dimension of the Armed ForcesPresence and Availability of Personnel and MaterialQuality of Arms TechnologyStrategic Core Capabilities and RangesOperational and Tactical Core CapabilitiesAppendix II: Possible Risk Areas for the Security of Germany-A Tabular OverviewRisk Area EastRisk Area Northeast EuropeRisk Area Eastern EuropeRisk Area CaucasusRisk Area Southeast EuropeRisk Area North AfricaRisk Area Middle EastRisk Area Southwest AsiaRisk Area Central AsiaRisk Area AsiaAppendix III: Essays on Selected TopicsComments on a Broad Definition of SecurityRefugees as a Way of Waging WarStrategy and the EnvironmentGeostrategic Effects (Environment as a Strategic Factor)Operational EffectsInfluence of Military Activities on the EnvironmentSecurity-Relevant Environmental Changes, Especially of a Military NatureClimate Change and Its ConsequencesDiminution of Biotopes, Arable Lands, and Public GoodsFreshwater ResourcesResource Fossil Fuel, Especially PetroleumConcluding CommentsOn the Nature of WarA Means of PoliticsForms and Types of WarViolence and Its LimitationNormsEscalationViolence and CounterviolenceBibliographyIndex